Key excerpt:
Wanting something to be true is the most common way people end up wrong, and it never feels like a mistake while it is happening.
Jeff Bezos says being right a lot and changing your mind a lot are the same habit.
Bezos: “I always say be stubborn on the vision and flexible on the details.”
A vision is a statement about what you want. A detail is a claim about how the world works.
Evidence can only correct the second kind. Holding the first costs you nothing, and holding the second costs you everything.
Bezos: “And you have to be, because the world is changing and you change your mind.”
He treats revision as part of the job rather than something that happens to you when you get caught out.
Bezos: “I’ve noticed that people who are right a lot change their mind a lot.”
Everything around you rewards the opposite. Consistency reads as conviction and revision reads as weakness, so most people quietly pay in accuracy to protect how they look.
Bezos: “People who are wrong a lot are very stubborn on the details.”
Being right a lot is a rate rather than a trait. Whoever corrects fastest ends up ahead of whoever started with the better guess.
Elkann: “And that is also self-awareness of how reality is, rather than how one would want it to be.”
That gap is where wrong beliefs survive.
Bezos: “This is so true.”
Wanting something to be true is the most common way people end up wrong, and it never feels like a mistake while it is happening.
None of this requires being smarter than anyone else. It requires saying you were wrong before somebody else says it for you.
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